Bob Peters Forecast

Gustav is likely to have a substantial impact on East Texas from Tuesday evening into Thursday afternoon.

If the projected track and intensity based on Friday's analysis is correct, very heavy and potentially flooding rains are probable.

In addition, significant damage from sustaining winds of about 60 mph with higher gusts is also a major threat. This could mean protracted disruptions of electric, TV cable, and telephone service, along with air and surface transport.

Gustav is forecast to make landfall Tuesday midday be-tween Lake Charles and Houma, La. with winds of about 125 mph. The storm should continue a northwestward movement after landfall, and reach a point near Marshall Wednesday morning. Sustain-ing wind velocities are forecast to be continuing at strong tropical storm force velocities at that time 65 mph.

Even though most of the area will be in the storm's western quadrant where less rainfall is usually expected the center should be close enough to the region that amounts of five inches and perhaps much higher are likely.

The greatest threat for flooding rains will come from Tuesday evening into mid-afternoon Thursday.

Hurricane track forecasts more than 72 hours out are subject to considerable error.